November 2025
Improved risk-prediction tool for invasive melanoma
By Melanie Hinze
Queensland researchers have released a new online melanoma risk-prediction tool that can help GPs to more precisely identify patients at higher risk of melanoma, and who might benefit from systematic early detection activities.
The online tool was developed using data from more than 40,000 individuals in the QSkin Study, a population-based prospective cohort study led by Professor David Whiteman and colleagues and published in JAMA Dermatology.
A total of 41,919 individuals (55% female; mean age 55.4 years) who were melanoma-free at baseline participated. Each participant completed a comprehensive risk factor survey at recruitment, follow up occurred over 10 years and data analysis took place between October 2024 and April 2025.
Overall, 706 new invasive melanomas were identified during 401,356 person-years of follow up.
The new melanoma risk-prediction tool builds on an earlier version by incorporating risk weightings based on 14 clinical predictors (age, sex, ancestry, mole count, freckling, hair colour, tanning ability, adult sunburns, family and personal cancer history, prior skin excisions, prior actinic keratoses, smoking status and height) along with two statistical factors (age-squared and an age-by-sex interaction).
The new model correctly identified 74% of people who went on to develop invasive melanoma. In comparison, the earlier 2018 model captured fewer cases, with lower accuracy.
Professor Whiteman, a Medical Epidemiologist and Public Health Physician at QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute, Brisbane, said, ‘Melanoma is a very common cancer in Australia,’ noting that, ‘We’ve come a long way in ensuring that the public is protected, and GPs play a frontline role in the diagnosis and management of melanoma.’
Professor Whiteman told Medicine Today that this tool was the accumulation of 10-years’ follow up, whereas the previous tool was based on 3.5-years’ follow up.
The new tool also had an increase in precision and prediction accuracy of about 5%, he added.
The melanoma risk calculator is freely available at https://www.qimrb.edu.au/melanoma, and can be used on a phone, desktop computer or laptop.